Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions

Jason Pauli

            As the summer blockbuster season of big bang movies has come to a close, film fans now turn their attention to the Oscar season. Between October and January, Hollywood will be rolling out their Oscar worthy films all in hopes to claim another one of those best picture awards.

My number three choice for an Oscar win this year is The Wolf of Wall Street. It is almost impossible for a director like Martin Scorsese to create a  film and not take home at least a nomination. The film centers around the true story of a young wall street tycoon who climbs his way to the top through some questionable means. The film features a stacked cast of top tier actors like Matthew Mcconaughey, who had recently given a stellar performance in Mud, Jonah Hill and, of course, Leonardo DeCaprio. The film appears fast paced, engaging, exciting, funny, and has that unmistakable Martin Scorsese film making style with long shots, fun characters, and an over the top story. He is comparable to directors like Quinton Tarentino in that all they need to do to secure a nomination is make a movie. There are, however, a few minor setbacks for this film that are causing the release date to be pushed back. First of all, the film is over three hours long. While some movies like The Lord of the Rings are also three hours, they have the benefit of fantasy on their side to keep audiences captivated, but can this film keep an audience intrigued by DeCaprio and his story for three whole hours? The other issue is rating. UPI reports that the film “is now three hours. If he can’t shorten the movie to his satisfaction by Christmas so it can qualify for awards season, the film will be released sometime next year.” Typically films with a rating like that fall off the Oscar bandwagon but I am sure Scorsese will pull this one out for movie goers just in time for the holidays.

My number two for this year’s Oscar season goes to American Hustle. Christian Bale, Jennifer Lawrence, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, and Jeremy Renner, need I say more? This cast is stacked, and not just with big names, but also big talent. Oscar winners like Bale and Lawrence boost the potential of this project. Top that with David O Russle, who almost took the category, last year with Silver Linings Playbook and I would say he’s got a nomination in the bag. The story follows a prominent con man (Bale) and his partner (Adams) working in collaboration with an FBI detective (Cooper). Sound interesting? I certainly think so! Last year David or Russle took home the award for best film at the Toronto International Film Festival, which is usually a sign for who will win best picture at the Oscars, however that theory failed last year. All in all, I’d be blown away if this film does not at least score a nomination.

My number one pick is an unpopular choice but I feel that this film should take home the win. Mud starring Matthew Mcconaughey. This film follows two young boys growing up in a poverty stricken waterfront land in the bayous. On one of their explorations the boys find a boat in a tree. They find a man living inside of it; that man is Mud. The film features a fantastic cast, including Matthew Mcconaughey at his best and amazing child actors, suspense, beautiful cinematography, and of course a whole lot of heart. The only thing stopping this film from stealing a nomination is its release. The film has been out for months now, killing any opportunity for an Oscar, unless the film has a re-release.

Now these are my picks for what I would  like to see obtain nominations and win. Here is what will end up being nominated. The wolf of Wall Street will be nominated, but there is not a chance that it will win. Films like that will always get a nomination, but will almost never win. American Hustle has a chance, but I would not bet on a victory. It looks like too much fun, and fun usually does not warrant an Oscar win. Gravity by Alfonso Cuarón will surely score a nomination, despite the fact that the plot is lackluster and it banks entirely on CGI and George Clooney. The last film, which is almost guaranteed to take home the win is Twelve Years a Slave. Despite my best wishes this film has the best chance to take home a win this upcoming Oscar season. Why? Several reasons, one, they are releasing it at the right time. The first thing they did well was play it at the Toronto International Film Festival before a wide release. Films that win there have gone on to do very well at the Oscars. Previous winners include Slum dog Millionaire and The Silver Linings Playbook. Second of all, it has got a bunch of big names, granted most of them are supporting roles, but big names get big buzz and the studio knows it. Lastly, and this may be controversial, but it is about slavery. I call it Oscar bait. They made it, not to make a brilliant movie and tell a compelling story, but so the studio can claim an Oscar. And when you look at it, that theory may not be too off base. The studios associated with 12 Years a Slave have not had an Oscar winning movie in over twenty years. Naturally they want to hop on the bandwagon. That does not sit well with me, on top of the fact that this movie looks generic, boring, and overly dramatic. On top of that, a terrible trailer makes me think this movie should just fall by the wayside, but it has not and it will not. But maybe I am wrong. Critics are all over this thing like it’s the next Forrest Gump. Maybe I am wrong and I will love every frame of the film. It has a solid cast and with big names like Brad Pitt, Michael Fastbender and Benedict Cumberbatch.

So in summary, my predictions for award winners are:

3. Gravity

2. American Hustle

1. 12 Years a Slave

And my top choices to win are:

3.The Wolf of Wallstreet

2. American Hustle

1. Mud

Honorable mentions go to: Rush, The Fifth Estate, The Book Thief, and Nebraska.

What movies would you like to see take home and Oscar? Comment your picks down below.